Will the National Dialogue Put an End for the Two-year Syrian Conflict?
As the Syrian conflict intensifies, the revolution that was once before peaceful protests is now losing its holy principles of democracy, political freedoms and equality. Almost two years since the first protest took place in downtown Damascus on March 2011, the Syrians have been struggling to overthrow the Assad’s rule, but, unfortunately, their peaceful demonstrations have not changed the human conscience to stop Assad’s massacres, nor the rebels could beat the regime militarily.
Even though the rebels have made many military advancements, the Syrian conflict is currently in a stalemate where no side can take over the other at least till now. As a result, talks of making a national dialogue between the Syrian opposition and Assad are surfacing to put an end for the two-year conflict and the Syrian refugees’ crisis.
With the contradictions of the opinions on how the conflict should be solved, let me give you an example that may conclude the Syrians’ struggle against the oppressive regime. The Assad’s rule is like the cancer that spreads through all the human body paralysing its functions. Cancer’s treatments vary from the conservative treatment plans to the surgical ones. Likewise, the regime may be treated conservatively through the national dialogue or a peaceful treaty between the conflicts’ opponents, but that, in my personal opinion, is not acceptable right now and the reality on the ground confirms that. The Syrian uprising was like the initiation of the surgical procedure. From a medical perspective, stopping the surgical operation prior to the complete elimination of the cancer may stimulate the negative reaction of the cancer causing it to spread again all over the body more rapidly and more aggressively. Therefore, stopping the revolution or cooling it down through the negotiating process will give the regime more time to rest and prepare for the ultimate revenge from the Syrians. Prior to the uprising, Syria was perfectly a state intelligence; however, Syrians has been able to break the fear barrier in a way that has shocked the authoritarian rule. So, here comes my question: after the so-called “national dialogue” takes place, will Assad forgive the Syrian people and undermine his security apparatus? Personally, I doubt that.
Why the regime can not fulfill the negotiating requirements? Here, let me give an example of the rebels when they enter a certain district, the regime would randomly shell the district not differentiating between a human and a stone. So, Assad’s solution is to let the Syrians face the destruction of their society. Furthermore, the regime’s game, frightening the ethnic minorities from the Islamic extremists, is becoming more exaggerated. For instance, in March 2013 the regime claimed that an extremist had bombed himself inside a mosque, assassinating sheikh Bouti and dozens of civilians, but as we have seen recently that this story is completely fabricated and there is a leaked video shows the Assad’s security apparatus assassinating Bouti. So, How the Syrians will trust such regime? How he will not send his thugs and informers to manipulate the Syrians’ lives after the national dialogue takes place.
Why the rebels can not fulfill the negotiating requirements? First of all, let me say that the gap between the political opposition members, who are outside Syria and are living in the foreign hotels, and the Syrian rebels, who are on the ground fighting fiercely the Syrian army, is very wide and the coordination between them haven’t reached the appropriate level yet. Furthermore, the Syrian rebels are not a completely united army because there are five major divisions fighting on the ground and each one is following a certain financial supporter even though they are fighting for the overthrown of the Assad’s rule. Consequently, a possibility that may let them agree on the ceasefire process is not realistic.
With all sadness and pain, I can say that the current conflict will not be solve through the negotiation between the two opponents as it happened in Lebanon in the 1990s. Syria is always unique and this conflict will be ended in one of two ways, either the win or lose of the Syrian regime.
Via The Guardian: Syria’s air force targeting civilians
Via Syria comment: Sorting out David Ignatius
Written by the Free Syrian Blog.