How to Topple a Regime in Ten months
The Syrian uprising is going to soon hit its sixth moth as I write this post, with no sign of a close solution showing up in the horizon. However, no one can deny the fact that the Syrian regime is exhibiting signs of irrational acts from international insults to prominent nations ( by the foreign affairs minister Waleed Almualim who said Syria will pretend that Europe doesn’t exist on the map if they maintain their pressure on Syria) to ignoring advices of traditional allies ( Russia and Iran who grew sick and tired of the Syrian regime’s attitude and waste of funds).
So the million dollar question is, how can the Syrians topple this regime in ,let’s say, ten months?
The answer lies in understand what are the obstacles that are obstructing the collapse of Assad’s mafia, and this is of course as I see it :
1- The everlasting conflict between the opposition characters: Syria is rich with variable political currents despite the fact of forty years of political “clinical death” as I like to call it. These currents and movements didn’t get the chance to experiment and collect fans in the streets of Syria. Therefore, they remain represented by few individuals. You have the seculars (liberals-socialists-communists and many others), the Islamist(the muslims brotherhood movement and many others) and the liberal muslims, I think of those as the Syrian libertarians ( like the justice and development movement).. In addition to many other independent individuals who carry a mix of different ideologies and visions of Syria.
2-The future Syria: Again, given the fact that non of these parties, movements, and individuals got the chance to promote or apply their visions on the Syrian ground there is no way to know which one will be eventually capable of winning parliamentary elections.This,I think, keeps Syria in the circle of danger that haunts around half of the Syrian population; a future religious state. These fears magnify given the fact the most prepared party between the ones mentioned above is the Muslim brotherhood that was established earlier in the twentieth century.
3- Representation of the revolution: even after around 6 months in the streets, The Syrians around the world can’t agree on who represents the revolutionaries. many councils and committees were formed for that purpose( especially what the Syrians inside call Tanseeqeeyat meaning organizing committees in Arabic). Syrians now stand in front of two councils and one committee (the unified national Syrian council- the general committee of the syrian revolution- and the Syrian transitional council) in addition to earlier groups working on the strategies of forming these groups.
In short, it is a salad! all the councils and the committies claim that the others don’t represent the Syrians in the streets. There is also the idea that the Syrian opposition outside is a second degree opposition despite the fact that many of them were either exiled or imprisoned for such a long time before seeking asylum outside Syria
4- the Direction of the revolution: Syrians inside and outside from all types of opposition are wavering between continuing in the path of heavy peaceful demonstrations around Syria, limited international intervention and arming the citizens, all the way to the extreme of a NATO complete intervention just like the Libyan case.
I think the problem in making this decision is the different short term goals, some Syrians think that stopping the bloodshed is a priority regardless of what implications this could have on the future of Syria, others think that the priority is a slow transition by the hands of Syrians and Syrians only no matter what the cost is. It is a very hard choice indeed to make.
After examining these road blocks, I will leave the answer to each point to other posts. Maybe you dear readers can help in sharing your views about solving each of these problems?